El Nino explained: How the weather pattern affects hurricanes and tropical storms

None of the six tropical storms registered in the Atlantic so far this year have reached hurricane status (FILE photo of Hurricane Matthew in Oct. 2016) Image: Tim Aylen/AP Photo/picture alliance

In a typical year, storm watchers have logged several hurricanes by late September. At this point in 2005, one of the most active years on record, five major hurricanes had already churned their way through the Atlantic Ocean — including Katrina, one of the most devastating in US history .

But 2026 has been quiet so far. As of September 23, only six tropical storms had formed over the North Atlantic, and none had intensified into hurricanes — a first since satellites began tracking storms in 1966, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US.

"In the satellite era, we have never had a year without a hurricane," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "This would be a first."

That's due, in large part, to the latest iteration of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , a shifting cycle of winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean that shapes weather worldwide and makes it a "dominant factor in total hurricane season activity." Meteorologists have said this year's El Nino could be one of the strongest on record .

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