El Nino is a 'postcard from the future' — and could cause 451,000 excess heat deaths

Peruvian fishermen gave El Nino its name — "the little boy," or Christ Child — after noticing unusually warm Pacific waters around Christmas that caused the fish they depended on to suddenly become scarce.

But what those fishermen observed locally can have consequences thousands of kilometers away. El Nino can shift temperature and rainfall patterns around the world, bringing extreme heat and drought to some regions and heavy rain and flooding to others.

Researchers now estimate that the unusually high temperatures linked to the current El Nino could cause around 451,000 excess deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027.

The event is a "postcard from the future," Tamma Carleton, head of research at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, told DW. Land temperatures over the coming months are forecast to run about 1.2 degrees C (2.1 F) above normal.

"For the average person, that's roughly the warming climate change is projected to bring about 20 years from now, arriving all at once," Carleton said.

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