French government forecasts 1% growth in 2027: what do experts think?

France's High Council for Public Finance calls the government's 1.0% growth forecast for the 2027 budget "optimistic", as economists warn of a possible "slippage" and the executive still has to secure approval.

The budget battle is only just beginning, and the growth figure chosen by the government for 2027 is already prompting reservations.

In an opinion published on Thursday (source in French) , the High Council for Public Finance (HCFP) judged that the draft budget and social security financing bills, presented the same day to the Council of Ministers, were based in particular on a 1.0% growth forecast it considers "optimistic".

The institution chaired by Amélie de Montchalin, currently First President of the Court of Audit and formerly minister for Public Action and Accounts under Emmanuel Macron, also highlights the "significant uncertainty" surrounding the domestic situation, notably regarding "the very adoption of the budget for 2027".

According to the first draft unveiled, the executive aims to bring the public deficit down to 5.0% of GDP in 2027, from 5.4% this year, at the cost of an "effort" totalling 54 billion euros.

"That would make it the fifth consecutive year with a deficit equal to or above 5%," notes Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the eurozone at Natixis CIB, in a commentary to Euronews.

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